Gideon Sa'ar's party would get 17 mandates if elections held today – poll
MK Gideon Sa’ar reshuffled the deck for Israel’s political system on Tuesday night and would gain 17 mandates were the election held today, according to an initial poll conducted for 103FM and published on Wednesday. 
The poll was published only hours after Sa’ar announced his resignation from the Likud and the establishment of his new party, which aims to replace as prime minister.
According to the poll, which was conducted by 103FM, and Menachem Lazar, director of Panels Politics, a new party led by Sa’ar would rank as the third largest party in the political system were the elections held today. 
The new party would draw mandates away from almost the entire political system, with the exception of the ultra-Orthodox parties and Meretz. The Likud would drop to 25 mandates in the current poll, with Yamina dropping to 19. Yesh Atid would drop down to 14 mandates, while the Joint List would drop to 11 seats. Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu would receive 7 mandates, Blue and White would receive 6. Shas and United Torah Judaism, as stated, would retain their power – Shas with 9 mandates and UTJ with 7. Meretz closes off the list with 5 stable mandates.
The most intriguing statistic examined in the survey is how the introduction of such a party affects the political map and the chances of each candidate to form a government after the election. The results, here too, are surprising: a bloc led by Netanyahu, which includes the Likud and the ultra-Orthodox parties, reaches only 41 mandates, or 60 with Yamina. An alternative bloc to Netanyahu, led by Sa’ar, and with the participation of Yesh Atid, the Joint List, Yisrael Beytenu, Blue and White and Meretz, would also reach 60 seats in the next Knesset.
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Seemingly, then, there is a deadlock between two completely new blocs – but some questions still remain open: how many seats will Sa’ar actually get when the initial effect of his announcement fades and when the composition of his list members is revealed to the public?What will parties like Yamina and Yisrael Beytenu – who have the power to dramatically change the bloc formations, and whose heads have repeatedly stated that they do not intend to automatically join any bloc – do with their newly increased power? And one more key question is on the table: Will there be an election at all – or in light of recent developments, will Netanyahu and Gantz find a way to return their coalition to a working path that will ensure their continued tenure in the leadership?
The answers to these and many other questions will be provided, as always, only very close to Israel’s expected fourth meeting with the polls in two years.
The survey was held on Wednesday through Panel4All’s respondents’ panel for internet research. The survey’s respondents provided a representative sample size of the adult population in the State of Israel from the ages of 18 and up, with the maximum sampling error in the survey being 4.4 percent.
Translated by Idan Zonshine.

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