It is only one year since his convincing election victory – but most voters do not expect Boris Johnson to make it until the next general election, scheduled for 2024.
Rishi Sunak is the public’s preferred choice to replace him as Conservative leader in the event of a contest.
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Mr Johnson has been dogged by speculation his stay in No 10 could end up being brief since he took over from Theresa May in July last year, despite winning a comfortable majority and reshaping the Tory party in his image.
His brush with death after contracting Covid-19 has increased the whispers that he may not serve a full term, although he insists he has fully regained his health.
Asked when they expect the Prime Minister to be replaced, 27 per cent of people predicted he would leave in 2021, 18 per cent said 2022 and just 21 per cent backed Mr Johnson to remain in his post until at least 2024, when he would have to call a general election.
If he did step down before the election, his replacement would be chosen via a Conservative leadership election, in the same way as both Mr Johnson and Mrs May came to power. Asked which Tory MP they would most like to see become the new leader, 34 per cent named Mr Sunak as their preferred candidate.
The Chancellor was far ahead of any other contender with Dominic Raab, Matt Hancock, Michael Gove, Jeremy Hunt, Priti Patel and Sajid Javid all garnering between 3 and 7 per cent.
The nation is roughly evenly divided over the question of Mr Johnson’s overall job performance. 39 per cent said they approve or strongly approve of how he has done so far, with 40 per cent disapproving or strongly disapproving and 20 per cent in the middle. The Prime Minister leads Sir Keir Starmer by 11 points on the question of who would do a better job of running the country.